阿特斯CEO瞿晓铧博士谈原油价格和光伏能源的联系
发布日期：2014/12/10
光伏领域备受尊重的分析师Nitin Kumar，最近发表了一篇研究报告，阐述了原油价格对上市公司光伏股价的影响。最近原油价格的波动不仅影响了光伏股价，甚至波及到整个能源行业。
这是好事还是坏事？
请阅读瞿总发表于Linked in的原文：
Nitin Kumar, a well-respected analyst in the solar industry recently published a research note examining the link between crude oil price and solar stock price. Recent stock market reactions to oil price shows solar stock trading up and down in tandem with the whole energy sector.
Is this a good or a bad thing?
I have mixed feelings.
I have been in the solar industry for my entire 18-year career and I take it as a compliment to all solar industry participants that the solar Industry is no longer a marginal industry that, in the past, had a tendency to be overlooked. If the price of crude oils can directly af Nitin Kumar, a well-respected analyst in the solar industry recently published a research note examining the link between crude oil price and solar stock price. Recent stock market reactions to oil price shows solar stock trading up and down in tandem with the whole energy sector.
Is this a good or a bad thing?
I have mixed feelings.
I have been in the solar industry for my entire 18-year career and I take it as a compliment to all solar industry participants that the solar Industry is no longer a marginal industry that, in the past, had a tendency to be overlooked. If the price of crude oils can directly affect the demand for solar products, solar energy production in a near future may also affect the demand for oil and gas.
Having said that, does crude oil price really affect people’s adoption of solar energy?
Not at all!
In the US, 39% of electricity is coal generated (still surprisingly high), 27% gas, 19% nuclear, 7% hydro, 6% renewables and only 1% is oil generated.
After the Fukushima nuclear double-meltdown accident in Japan, 27.6% of electricity comes from coal, 42.5% from LNG, 8.6% from hydro, 6.4 from renewables, while 8.3% is from oil.
In the European Union (EU 27), it is 28% coal, 16% gas, 2% oil, 27% nuclear, 12% hydro, 7% wind and the remaining 8% from solar and other forms of energy.
In China, a shocking 74% of energy comes from coal, 2% from gas, less than 3% from wind and a mere 0.16% from solar. The remaining power is provided by hydro, nuclear and other forms of generation.
It would appear that, by and large, we don’t actually burn that much oil to generate electricity, and the cost of our electricity is more related to the supply of coal and gas than it is to oil. In the US gas price is affected mainly by domestic supply and demand. In Europe, of course, geopolitics plays an important role. Japan is a little different as it imports both oil and LNG.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of solar products goes to the distributed power generation market and serves retail customers. The rise of retail electricity price in recent years, is mainly affected by transmission and other fixed costs rather than the input fuel. The long term energy price trend is, however, important to the solar industry. This is because professional investors are now starting to accept a 35-year lifetime for solar systems. Annual electricity rate rise (escalator) will increase the intrinsic value of a solar power system as the system will continue to generate solar energy and sell its power to the grid even after PPA expires.
But for now, the demand for solar energy is and will not be affected by oil price change. fect the demand for solar products, solar energy production in a near future may also affect the demand for oil and gas.
Having said that, does crude oil price really affect people’s adoption of solar energy?
Not at all!
In the US, 39% of electricity is coal generated (still surprisingly high), 27% gas, 19% nuclear, 7% hydro, 6% renewables and only 1% is oil generated.
After the Fukushima nuclear double-meltdown accident in Japan, 27.6% of electricity comes from coal, 42.5% from LNG, 8.6% from hydro, 6.4 from renewables, while 8.3% is from oil.
In the European Union (EU 27), it is 28% coal, 16% gas, 2% oil, 27% nuclear, 12% hydro, 7% wind and the remaining 8% from solar and other forms of energy.
In China, a shocking 74% of energy comes from coal, 2% from gas, less than 3% from wind and a mere 0.16% from solar. The remaining power is provided by hydro, nuclear and other forms of generation.
It would appear that, by and large, we don’t actually burn that much oil to generate electricity, and the cost of our electricity is more related to the supply of coal and gas than it is to oil. In the US gas price is affected mainly by domestic supply and demand. In Europe, of course, geopolitics plays an important role. Japan is a little different as it imports both oil and LNG.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of solar products goes to the distributed power generation market and serves retail customers. The rise of retail electricity price in recent years, is mainly affected by transmission and other fixed costs rather than the input fuel. The long term energy price trend is, however, important to the solar industry. This is because professional investors are now starting to accept a 35-year lifetime for solar systems. Annual electricity rate rise (escalator) will increase the intrinsic value of a solar power system as the system will continue to generate solar energy and sell its power to the grid even after PPA expires.
But for now, the demand for solar energy is and will not be affected by oil price change.
